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The Blue Jays have now lost six games in a row and send Matz to the mound who comes into this matchup with a 4.69 ERA, yet a 5-2 record. He has allowed at least three earned runs in five of his last six starts including his last start against the Red Sox who tagged him for five runs on 10 hits including one home run. Although he has improved since last season, Matz is still trending downwards and opponents have hit above a .273 average against three of his four pitches. He has thrown his sinker for 44.9 percent of pitches this season and opponents have a .277 average against it, but even if Matz gets up in the count the hitters still have the advantage because opponents have a .375 batting average against his curveball. Even with no Giancarlo Stanton, this Yankees offense should tee off against Matz and the poor Blue Jays bullpen. Back the Yankees by the -1.5 run line with confidence.

With the way these teams smack the ball around I thought for sure this total would be set at double digits. The fact that it has come in just below presents a nice buying opportunity. Both of these pitchers are solid but I am still not buying Richards as more than a journeyman at this point of his career. Morton is a little better than that but maybe age is finally catching up to him this season. With these teams at Fenway Park, I think both will score at least five runs. Look for the over to cash well before the 9th inning.
Take the over (9.5 available at publishing).

Aaron Civale is having a really good season. He actually has more wins and even a slightly lower ERA than Shane Bieber. Civale’s first two starts of the season were against Detroit, both wins. That makes him a tough fade to consider here. Tarik Skubal also has a couple of starts against the Indians but they didn’t go so well – eight runs in nine innings. Skubal has not shown much improvement since last year’s debut. With just one win on the season, it is hard to back Detroit with him on the mound.
Take Cleveland.

The Los Angeles Clippers will look to bounce back from their embarrassing Game 1 loss here against the Dallas Mavericks. For a few reasons, I think they’ll have no problem doing so. The Clippers rested their starters a bunch down the stretch to tank for seeding purposes, and I think it backfired. All the time off caused the stars to be a bit rusty in Game 1, but that will no longer be an issue here. The Clippers shot only 27 percent from three while the Mavericks shot 47 percent, and this was still a three-point game with less than two minutes to go.

With some shooting regression to the mean from both teams, the Clips should win this one comfortably. Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Marcus Morris combined to shoot 3-20 from beyond the arc, and they very nearly won. Morris shot better than 47 percent from deep this year, but was 0/6. Head coach Ty Lue has said Leonard will guard Luka Doncic more in this game, which will be a big boost for Los Angeles’ already stout defense. Don’t overreact to one game, I see the Clippers winning this one by double digits.

Game 1 was a feel-out game for the Nets — we didn’t really see too much ball movement from them as they passed the ball only 240 times, which was their third-lowest mark of the season. They also had 40 isolation possessions, in the regular season they averaged 10.9 per game. This will be addressed by Steve Nash and the Nets will make adjustments for Game 2 — better ball movement should lead to better shooting overall and from role players like Joe Harris. As a team the Nets made only 23 percent of threes in Game 1, that should also improve. Similar to the Nets, the Celtics also disappointed offensively in Game 1, both Tatum and Walker will have to improve if they want to stand a chance in this one. If players like Fournier and Williams III can contribute a bit more on the offensive end we should see a higher scoring game here. Roll with the over.

The last Game 1 of the first round will be contested on Sunday night with the Utah Jazz playing host to the Memphis Grizzlies. It has already been a successful postseason for the Grizzlies, even though their official playoff march is not beginning until this weekend. After finishing ninth in the Western Conference, Memphis won back-to-back play-in tournament games over San Antonio (on the road) and Golden State (at home) to earn the No. 8 seed. There certainly won’t be any rust involved for the Grizzlies, but at the same time rest won’t be a factor either because they have enjoyed days off in between postseason games. The Grizz have won seven of their last eight overall, with their only loss during this stretch coming to the Warriors–a result they quickly avenged. Utah, which lost two of its last four regular-season games, is likely getting back Donovan Mitchell for the start of the playoffs. However, he has not played in more than a month because of an ankle injury. There is no telling what kind of Mitchell will be on display in the series opener. It should also be noted that even though Utah won all three regular-season meetings, two were by no more than four points. Memphis is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog and 21-10 ATS in its last 31 playing on one day of rest. The Jazz are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 at home, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 against opponents with winning records, and 1-5 ATS in their last six playing on at least three days of rest. Take the Grizzlies and the points.

It has been a few years since Atlanta was in the playoffs. They finished with the same 41-31 record as the Knicks but are the fifth seed with the Knicks fourth due to tie-breakers. Atlanta was a scorching 27-11 after they fired Lloyd Pierce and elevated Nate McMillan to interim head coach. That was no small feat and now McMillan has to get a team with nearly no playoff experience ready to play against a team that has been playing playoff-style basketball all season. Any game where Trae Young is the best player on the court is one the Hawks can win. Let’s see if he can stay disciplined with the pressure on.

New York is back in the playoff for the first time since 2013. They might have an advantage in that they have been playing intense defense all season but at the same time they often have issues with scoring. Julius Randle and RJ Barrett are a light 1-2 punch and neither has any playoff experience. Randle has been having an MVP-type season and should be expected to play well in this series but almost everyone’s efficiency drops in the playoffs and scoring has been a challenge for the Knicks.

This series is expected to be tight and Game 1 is basically a pick ’em contest. That is interesting because during the season the Knicks were 3-0 against Atlanta and only the first of those three games was close. Each game was very different in terms of scoring too, ranging from modest to really high scoring in their most recent contest. That tells us that New York might have more of an advantage in the matchup than it appears on the surface as they can beat Atlanta playing a bunch of different ways. I can easily get behind the home team in a Game 1 scenario, especially when they don’t have to win by much. Take New York.

Knicks -1 available at time of publishing.

The over also makes some sense in this spot. In a game like this with the Lakers’ strong defense my initial inclination was to lean under like I did in their play-in game, but this total is simply too low. The last time these teams played the Lakers scored 123 points, and that was without James in the lineup. Only one of their three meetings this season stayed below this total, and that was a game where both James and Davis didn’t play so you can throw that out the window.

The over is 21-6 in Phoenix’s last 27 games, and I don’t see how a total in the low 210s is justifiable. Los Angeles’ defense doesn’t hold up quite as well against top competition, as the over is 7-1-1 in their last nine games against teams with winning records. Paul has been shooting really well, and I’m expecting a big game from Devin Booker in his first-ever playoff appearance. Over 213.0 available at publishing.

The three regular-season meetings between the teams averaged 241.6 points per game, which isn’t all that surprising considering the Wizards have the worst defense in the NBA. They allow 118.5 points per game, while the Sixers are ranked sixth, allowing 108.1 per game. When it comes to scoring, there is so much firepower on this Washington team – they rank third behind the Bucks and Nets in points per game at 116.6. Philadelphia is 14th in that category averaging 113.6 per game this season, however against the Wizards they averaged 127 in the three regular-season meetings. Wizards also play at the fastest pace in the NBA at 106.4 possessions per game, while Philadelphia is ranked 11th, averaging 101.8 per game. The total has gone over in six of Philadelphia’s last nine games when they are the favorite, which is the case here. We can expect Washington to go all out offensively and with this being the first game of the series, it might take Philadelphia’s defense a couple of games to figure out how to slow down Russ and Beal. Take the over.

FC Cincinnati were the worst team in the league in 2020, and it wasn’t close at all. They were outplayed in every aspect of the game, from the beginning of the season to the end, scoring just twelve goals all year (the next-lowest total league-wide was 23). It’s a miracle that head coach Jaap Stam kept his job coming into 2021 (that might have to do with Stam’s success as a player in the Premier League and Serie A). But he’s certainly on the hot seat now as the team is no better this year – while they have scored four goals in as many matches, they’ve collected only one point, a draw at Nashville in their first match of the season, before losing on a combined score of 8-0 at New York and Orlando and then giving up a further three at home to Inter Miami last week. Their bigger concern now is defense, as they’ve given up 13 goals in their four matches, and the task won’t get any easier as they travel to face a veteran-filled Montreal team with plenty of players who have experience playing in the best leagues in the world. Montreal scored four goals against Toronto, one of the top teams in the conference, a few weeks ago, and found the net twice against Nashville and Inter Miami, both playoff teams a year ago. They’ll certainly score enough to beat lowly Cincinnati.

It’s clear that the Portland Timbers aren’t the team they were last year, and it’s equally clear why. Star forward Jaroslaw Niezgoda came over from Poland for the 2020 season, leading the Timbers to a title in the MLS is Back Tournament and a first-place finish in the regular-season Western Conference standings. But Niezgoda suffered a torn ACL at the end of the season and will miss most, if not all, of 2021. Portland’s lack of a goal threat has seen them suffer some poor, unexpected losses that the 2020 squad surely wouldn’t have, including a 4-1 defeat to defense-oriented Dallas and a 1-0 loss to Vancouver, probably the worst team in the West in 2020. The LA Galaxy have done a tremendous job putting their franchise’s most disappointing season behind them. The Galaxy, even with one fewer match than most other teams, are alone in second place thanks almost entirely to Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez, the Mexican international star whose first season in Southern California was everything but expected. This year, though, Chicharito is back to doing what he does best, and he’s scored seven of the team’s ten goals. Portland are favored more so than they should be as the oddsmakers continue to overestimate home teams. Double your chances and take a draw or a Galaxy win.

After a rocky start to the season, Sonny Gray bounced back with two strong performances against the Pirates and White Sox. He struggled in last start against the red-hot Giants, but luckily for him the Brewers are ice-cold at the plate. In the last 15 days, the Brewers are hitting .201 which is the second worst mark in the league and have a .318 slugging percentage which is the worst in the league during that span. They did get Christian Yelich back from the injured list, but the former MVP is hitting just .227 in the last seven games and has struck out in 36.4 percent of his at-bats.

The Phillies have considered – and still do consider – Spencer Howard to be one of their top pitching prospects, but he just hasn’t been able to figure it out at the big-league level so far. Howard made six starts last season, didn’t pitch deep in any of them, and gave up 30 hits in just 24.1 innings, leading to a 5.92 ERA. He hasn’t done well in relief this year, but he’ll get a chance to start as the Phillies figure it can’t get any worse than Chase Anderson and his 7.56 ERA. Not worse, though, doesn’t mean better, especially against the best lineup in baseball this year, a unit that put up 11 runs in Friday’s series opener.

Tampa Bay’s bullpen ERA of 2.95 over the last two weeks is the best in the American League, while Toronto’s bullpen hasn’t been nearly as effective with a 4.83 ERA. McClanahan may not have much big league experience, but he is a hard-throwing lefty that has a very high ceiling. The Rays know how to manage their bullpen better than anyone, and that gives them the edge in this matchup. Take Tampa Bay.

The first ever Sunshine Showdown series between the Florida Panthers and the Tampa Bay Lighting has been electric. Thursday night the in-state rivals put on another thrilling performance as the Panthers outscored the Lightning 6-5 to cut Tampa Bays series lead in half. Hockey fans should have been thrilled for the Panthers to get the victory as it means we will likely be treated to more entertaining hockey games as the series extends. The Panthers got off to a two-goal lead early in the first period but quickly fell behind after a disastrous second period in which they surrendered five goals to the Lightning. Florida would find themselves down two goals heading into the third period but were able to complete the comeback to force overtime thanks to goals by Patric Hornqvist and Gustav Forsling. Ryan Lomberg was the unlikely hero for the Panthers as he used his speed to get behind Victor Hedman and lift the game winner over Andrei Vasilevskiy’s glove for the overtime game winner. What we can take away from this one is the Panthers are not going to go away easily. Look for the Panthers to ride this momentum into Saturday and even up the series at two games apiece. The Panthers had an incredible 47 shots on goal on Thursday night, which was sixteen more than the Lightning. Sergei Bobrovsky came into the game to start the third period and stopped all nine shots he faced. Look for the Panthers to go back to Bobrovsky to help them get the win on Saturday.